Three Questions
三つの問い
Where has connection stopped? Why there? What can be tested next?
今どこで止まっているのか。なぜそこで止まっているのか。次に何を検証できるのか。
A business fails to grow. Talented people do not stay. Customers use a product once but never return. A community attracts participants but fails to generate deeper engagement. A brand may be widely recognized yet never progress toward trust or advocacy. On the surface, these appear to be separate challenges involving marketing, organizations, talent, products, or culture-building. Yet many of them can be reduced to one common question:
“How do people and groups come to know something, engage with it, remain connected to it, accept it as part of themselves, and pass it forward?”
People often appear to leave suddenly. Yet disconnection rarely begins on the day of departure. Recognition gradually declines. A sense of safety is lost. The reasons for remaining involved begin to weaken. Something that once formed part of the self is slowly pushed back outside its boundaries.
HCE is a theory for reading the progression and stagnation of connection behind these otherwise invisible changes. Its objects of analysis include companies, brands, products, organizations, communities, cultures, institutions, and interpersonal relationships. Although each domain uses different language, the processes through which connection emerges, weakens, deepens, breaks, and is reconstructed share a common structure.
The purpose of this book is not to make readers memorize a theory. It is to translate complex problems into observable structures and clarify where progression has stopped, what is missing, and which interventions may be considered.
Reading Lens
This chapter turns problems into structure.
0.1
What HCE Examines
In business and organizational settings, outcomes are usually the first things we see.
It does not sell.It does not continue.People leave.People do not participate.It is not trusted.It is not recommended.It is not passed on.
Yet outcomes alone do not reveal their causes.
The same problem—“it does not sell”—requires different responses depending on whether people are unaware of its existence, it has failed to attract attention, its value is not understood, or progression has stopped during trust formation.
The same outcome—“an employee left”—also points to different structures requiring correction depending on whether the underlying cause was a lack of recognition, a loss of agency, reduced safety, the disappearance of a sense of contribution, or the exhaustion of future expectations.
HCE decomposes the final observable outcome into the connection structures that preceded it.
To do so, HCE addresses three questions in sequence:
Where has progression stopped?Why has it stopped there?What can be considered next?
A critical point is that HCE is not a decision-making device that prescribes a single correct answer. It is a navigation system for organizing an object of observation, comparing multiple possibilities, and making intervention options and their risks visible. Final decisions remain with the people involved, who must evaluate them in light of their purpose, context, ethics, and constraints.
0.2
From the Problem to the Next Step
HCE reads a problem in the following sequence:
ProblemPhenomenonPhaseStageDriverQuality FactorMechanismMethodNext Step
A problem is the difficulty initially recognized by the people involved. Raw management challenges such as “new customers do not stay,” “members do not participate,” or “newly hired talent leaves early” belong at this level.
A phenomenon is a label that reorganizes the problem into a comparable form. Examples include early turnover, customer defection, participation stagnation, declining trust, fan disengagement, and breakdowns in transmission. A phenomenon is not a cause. It is an entry point for finding the cause.
A phase indicates where in the connection cycle the problem is occurring. HCE divides the cycle into five phases: Acquisition, Engagement, Retention, Integration, and Transmission.
A stage identifies the specific point of progression within each phase. It determines whether the system is at the point of becoming known, being understood, forming trust, or becoming habitual.
A driver explains why a person moves to the next stage. Drivers are the psychological, social, and cultural forces that move connection forward, including aesthetic value, narrative value, recognition, safety, agency, contribution, shared history, and identity integration.
Quality Factors indicate the level of quality at which the connection exists. HCE evaluates this through four dimensions: co-presence, trust, depth, and continuity.
A mechanism is the layer that uses established research to explain why a phenomenon occurs. The mere-exposure effect, processing fluency, self-determination theory, trust models, social penetration theory, and loss aversion are positioned at this level.
A method is a potential intervention in response to the observed structure. Methods include onboarding design, messaging design, expectation calibration, trust repair, re-entry design, role design, and transmission design.
The Next Step is the point at which one feasible action is selected from these possibilities under current constraints.
Through this sequence, an abstract problem becomes a diagnosable structure.
0.3
The Nine Steps for Using HCE
Step 1
First, state the problem in its original form. “The response to the new service is weak,” “employees do not stay,” or “the community depends excessively on its operators” is sufficient.
Step 2
Second, translate it into a phenomenon. Assign it a comparable name, such as customer defection, early turnover, participation stagnation, failed authority transfer, or breakdown of transmission.
Step 3
Third, identify the phase. Determine whether the problem is occurring in Acquisition, Engagement, Retention, Integration, or Transmission.
Step 4
Fourth, identify the stage. Locate the point among the twelve stages where progression has stopped. It is particularly important to determine whether the system has crossed the GATE stages of Problem Recognition, Trust Formation, and Identity Integration.
Step 5
Fifth, examine the drivers. Determine whether the drivers required at that stage are weak, dormant, damaged, or no longer functional.
Step 6
Sixth, examine the Quality Factors. Distinguish whether the problem is insufficient contact, insufficient trust, inadequate relational depth, or a loss of continuity in renewal.
Step 7
Seventh, explain the structure through mechanisms. Avoid concluding from impressions or intuition alone. Compare the observed structure with existing research to understand why it has emerged.
Step 8
Eighth, compare multiple methods. List the possible interventions while considering speed of effect, cost, ethical risk, feasibility, and side effects.
Step 9
Ninth, determine the Next Step. Translate the diagnosis into the first action to be tested rather than into a large-scale reform proposal.
HCE does not seek to simplify complex problems. It seeks to preserve their complexity while decomposing them into units that can be examined and acted upon.
0.4
Three Examples
Example 1｜The Value of a New Service Is Not Understood＋
Step 1
The problem is, “Customers are not responding even though the service is sufficiently good.”
Step 2
The phenomenon is departure before value comprehension.
Step 3
The phase is Acquisition.
Step 4
The stage is Attention or Understanding.
Step 5
Drivers such as narrative value, identity value, and associative value may not be expressed clearly enough.
Step 6
In terms of Quality Factors, customers may lack sufficient time or attention in contact with the service—in other words, co-presence may be insufficient. The required response is not necessarily to add functionality immediately. The first question is whether the strongest value is being presented before the customer makes a judgment.
Step 7
Relevant mechanisms include processing fluency, the primacy effect, and the mere-exposure effect.
Step 8
Compare multiple methods. List possible interventions while considering speed of effect, cost, ethical risk, feasibility, and side effects.
Step 9
The Next Step is to move the primary value into the first few seconds, the first screen, or the first two sentences and test the difference in response.
Example 2｜Talented Employees Leave＋
Step 1
The problem is, “A key employee left even though there appeared to be no major dissatisfaction with their compensation or conditions.”
Step 2
The phenomenon is latent retention collapse.
Step 3
The phase is Retention.
Step 4
Progression may have stopped at Participation, Investment, or Habitualization.
Step 5
The relevant drivers are recognition, agency, contribution, safety, and expectation. Even when salary and title remain unchanged, connection weakens internally when a person’s judgment is not reflected, the meaning of their role is unclear, their contribution is not recognized, or they can no longer sustain expectations for the future.
Step 6
In terms of Quality Factors, trust, depth, or continuity may have deteriorated. Even when the frequency of contact remains stable, the quality of the relationship declines if candid dialogue, mutual understanding, or the renewal of roles has been lost.
Step 7
Relevant mechanisms include self-determination theory, psychological safety, organizational justice, expectancy violation, and the cumulative erosion of trust. Turnover often results not from a single event, but from the accumulation of small misalignments and unrepaired disappointments.
Step 8
Compare multiple methods, including role redesign, participation in decision-making, recognition design, expectation recalibration, periodic relationship reviews, and improved dialogue with managers. Evaluate each option in terms of speed, feasibility, organizational burden, and possible side effects.
Step 9
The Next Step is not to reduce the reason for departure to a single emotion, but to retrospectively analyze previous interviews, role changes, participation in decision-making, and records of recognition at the driver level.
Example 3｜People Gather in a Community, but Do Not Develop Within It＋
Step 1
The problem is, “Participants attend events, but sustained activity and voluntary contribution do not emerge.”
Step 2
The phenomenon is stagnation in the transition from Engagement to Retention.
Step 3
The relevant phase boundary lies between Engagement and Retention.
Step 4
Progression has most likely stopped between Trust Formation, Participation, and Investment. Even when awareness and acquisition are successful, participants remain spectators unless drivers such as role, recognition, agency, and contribution have been designed into the community.
Step 5
The relevant drivers are recognition, agency, contribution, reciprocity, belonging, and shared history. Engagement is unlikely to progress into retention when participants lack a meaningful role, are not entrusted with decisions, cannot see their contributions recognized, and do not accumulate shared history with others.
Step 6
In terms of Quality Factors, continuity and depth may be insufficient. Even when one-off contact is frequent, relationships remain event-bound if repeated interaction with the same people, mutual understanding, and the renewal of roles are absent.
Step 7
Relevant mechanisms include self-determination theory, social identity theory, commitment formation, norms of reciprocity, and trust built through shared experience. When people are continually treated as spectators, they are unlikely to develop into voluntary participants with a sense of ownership.
Step 8
Compare multiple methods, including assigning small roles, designing areas of choice, making contributions visible, creating repeated interaction in small groups, enabling collaboration among participants, and transferring responsibility gradually. Evaluate these options alongside operational burden, barriers to participation, sustainability, and the risk of exclusion.
Step 9
The Next Step is not to increase abstract appeals to all participants. It is to implement one small role, one area of choice, or one visible form of contribution and observe who progresses toward sustained engagement, and under which conditions.
0.5
Application to Private Relationships
HCE is primarily intended for the design of businesses, organizations, brands, products, communities, and cultures. At the same time, the same structures also appear in friendships, families, partnerships, and mentor–disciple relationships.
Particular care is required when applying HCE to private relationships. It should not be used to manipulate another person’s emotions or behavior. It should be used to understand what has been lost, what remains, and where boundaries should be placed. Reconnection is not always desirable. When safety has been violated or dignity has been damaged, maintaining distance may be more appropriate than restoring the relationship.
HCE does not provide techniques for moving another person. It provides a perspective for accurately reading the conditions that constitute a relationship.
0.6
How to Use This Book
This book can be read sequentially from beginning to end, but in practice it is also designed to be consulted in reverse from a specific problem.
A Phase shows the timeline of connection.A Stage shows the current position.A Driver shows the reason for progression or stagnation.A Quality Factor shows the quality of the relationship.A Mechanism shows the operating principle.A Method shows the available intervention options.
The important point is not to make a judgment using only one concept. Awareness may exist, but engagement will not continue without trust. Repeated contact may occur, but retention remains weak without agency. A relationship may persist for a long time, but it will not progress toward Transmission without Identity Integration.
The value of HCE lies not in any individual concept, but in the ability to read them together as one connection cycle.
By the end of this book, readers should take away more than a memory of specialized terminology. They should acquire a way of thinking that allows them to ask, in relation to the problem before them: “Where has progression stopped, what is missing, and what should be tested?”
This book presents the complete connection cycle examined by HCE. Why does one product remain merely a convenient tool, while another becomes embedded in a person’s self-image, an organization’s culture, or a community’s memory? The core of HCE becomes visible through this difference.
事業が伸びない。優秀な人材が定着しない。顧客は一度使っても戻ってこない。コミュニティに参加者は集まるが、深い関与が生まれない。ブランドの認知はあるのに、信頼や推奨へ進まない。こうした問題は、表面上はマーケティング、組織、人材、プロダクト、文化形成という別々の課題に見える。しかし、その多くは共通する一つの問いに還元できる。
「人や集団は、どのように対象を知り、関わり、留まり、自分たちの一部として受け入れ、次へ渡していくのか？」
人は、ある日突然離れるように見える。だが、断絶はその日に始まったのではない。承認が減り、安心が失われ、関わる理由が薄れ、自分の一部だったものが、少しずつ自分の外側へ押し出されていく。
HCEはこういった見えない変化の背後にある、接続の進行と停滞を読み解くための理論である。対象は、企業、ブランド、プロダクト、組織、コミュニティ、文化、制度、人間関係までを含む。領域ごとに現れる言葉は異なっても、接続が生まれ、弱まり、深まり、断絶し、再構成される過程には、共通する構造がある。
本書の目的は、理論を暗記させることではない。複雑な問題を、観察可能な構造へ変換し、どこで進行が止まり、何が不足し、どの介入が検討可能かを明らかにすることである。
Reading Lens
この章は問題を構造へ変換する。